MSc, Consultant and Freelance Researcher, Olso, Norway
Geostrategic position of a country not just creates opportunities in form of bilateral and multilateral collaborations, it may also pose stern long term concerns and spillover effects in terms of insecurity and conflict. Pakistan, if not a classic example, is a typical case of continually high geopolitics of international relations: its geostrategic location had been praised by international players during the cold war regime through financial assistance; it was encouraged to take part during the Russian invasion in Afghanistan in late 70’s; and was compelled to play the role of ‘front line state’ in the war against terrorism, in the aftermath of the 9/ 11 incidence, in 2001. Early attempts of establishing rebel groups based upon ethnic identity to fight in Afghanistan, while launching of ruthless military operations after 9/11 incidence, against same rebel groups who fought in Afghanistan during the Russian invasion, causing either undue leverage to specific ethnic minorities at one point in time or extreme repression at later stage of history. In order to pretest impact of geopolitics of International Relations upon conflict, and if the interplay of geopolitics with ‘ethnic polarization’ affected ‘internal conflict’, several econometric models have been estimated. Along with testing the impact of geopolitical importance and its interplay with ethnic polarization in distressing peace, other important propositions in estimated models include, how ‘external conflict’, ‘institutional efficacies’, and the ‘role of military in politics’, caused adversity of ‘Internal conflict’, in Pakistan. In order to ensure concurrent validity of econometric models, alternative regressands namely ratings of ‘Civil War’ and ‘Internal Conflict’ have been used. Keeping in view ordinal scaling of regressands, cautions in dealing with heteroscedasticity and potentially lagged impact of regressors, Ordered-probit, Ordered Logit, Quantile regression, Robust Regression, and Prais-Winsten models are estimated. Estimated models strongly approved the notion that ‘geopolitics of international relations’ and ‘geopolitics of International Relations’ in interaction with ‘Ethnic polarization’, have had a considerable and statistically significant temporal impact upon ‘internal conflict’ and rating of ‘civil war’, in context of Pakistan. Other significant factors that contributed to adversity of peace are ‘external conflict’, ‘role of military in politics’, ‘illegitimacy of the state actions’/ ‘institutional inefficacies’ and ‘religious polarization’.
Keywords: geopolitics of international relations, war against terrorism, internal conflict, ethnic polarization, ordered-probit model, robust regression, Prais-Winsten regression.
JEL Classification: C32, C35, D74, F51, F52, Q34.
Cite as: Saima, T. (2019). Geopolitics of International Relations, Ethnic Polarization and Internal Conflict: A Case for Pakistan. SocioEconomic Challenges, 3(4), 25-38. http://doi.org/10.21272/sec.3(4).25-38.2019.
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