Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Regional Integration in Asia

In Asia, SAARC (South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation), ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) and GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) are being considered as an active regional trading blocs although East Asian integration is on primary cooperation stage and BIMSTEC is treated as organised sub-regional trading bloc. The GCC has completed all criterion of economic integration except introduction of a single currency and ASEAN is advancing its optimum stage of monetary integration but the advancement of SAARC is halted by the shock of non-cooperation from Pakistan. Therefore, contribution of GCC in integrating Asian bloc is to scrutinise in a new outlook. In this paper, the author endeavours to show the impact of economic integration of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) on the Asian economic integration in the sense that the process of integration of GCC with SAARC and ASEAN can accelerate the criterion of Asian integration process. Therefore, the author used cointegration and vector error correction model among the indicators of trade integration of exports such as Asian export share, intra export share of GCC, export concentration index of GCC, ASEAN’s export with GCC and SAARC’s export with GCC during 1995-2019. Similarly, the author applied same methodology among the trade indicator of imports such as Asian import share, intra import share of GCC, import concentration index of GCC, ASEAN’s import with GCC and SAARC’s import with GCC during the specified period. The findings revealed that Asian export share has long run significant causalities with SAARC and ASEAN export shares to GCC. Intra export share of GCC has long run causalities with SAARC and ASEAN export shares to GCC. The export concentration index of GCC has significant long run causalities with SAARC and ASEAN export shares to GCC respectively. Even, the short run causalities from export concentration index of GCC to intra export share of GCC, export share of ASEAN and SAARC with GCC and the short run causality from ASEAN export share with GCC to export share of Asia and from intra export share of GCC to export share of ASEAN with GCC were strictly observed. Again, the import share of Asia has long run causalities with the import shares of ASEAN and SAARC with GCC. The intra import share of GCC has long run causalities with the import shares of ASEAN and SAARC with GCC and the import concentration index of GCC has long run causalities with the import shares of ASEAN and SAARC with GCC respectively. The intra import share of GCC has short run causalities with import share of Asia, import concentration index of GCC and import share of ASEAN with GCC respectively. The import concentration index has short run causality with the import share of Asia. The import share of SAARC with GCC has short run causality with import share of ASEAN with GCC. The cointegration and vector error correction among Asian GDP, sum of intra export and import shares of GCC, sum of export and import shares of ASEAN with GCC, and sum of export and import shares of SAARC with GCC during 1995-2019 indicated that the GDP of Asia has long run causalities with the sum of intra export and import shares of GCC, the sum of export and import shares of ASEAN with GCC and the sum of export and import shares of SAARC with GCC and even they have short run causalities also. All these observations can justify that GCC has great impact on Asian economic integration process associated with SAARC and ASEAN.


Introduction
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is consisting of six countries namely, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait and Bahrain respectively and was set up on 11 th November, 1981.The bloc has GCC is a net importer of food from SAARC and SAARC is a net importer of oil and gas from GCC. But GCC faced huge trade barriers from SAARC and other Asian countries while GCC's tariff rate ranges from 1.5%-2% to South Asia.
India-GCC economic relationship is quite bold and historic since India imports 42% of oil from GCC and it is the largest regional trading bloc but India-GCC free trade agreement is not yet finalised although agreement in economic cooperation was signed in August 2004. India-Gulf region's sea lines of communication remains open and flowing. Moreover, India-Gulf naval security through Indian ocean was established in 2008.
China-GCC negotiations opened in June 22-24,2009. China-GCC trade and economic joint committee discussed on 31 July,2011 for boosting bilateral trade, investment and technological co-operation. China imported oil from GCC states and exported machinery, electronic products, garments and luggage etc. Chinese FDI to GCC has been catapulting gradually. China-GCC FTA which was introduced in 2009 can promote bilateral trade and East Asian trade integration (Chen,2011).
GCC-Japan economic relation depends on trade cooperation with diplomatic strategy since 1955 in association with USA on the issue of security and development assistances. GCC-Japan FTA negotiations since 2006 were on dynamic process in the areas of trade and investment, rules of origin, custom procedures and disputes settlements etc to achieve liberalisation consistent with WTO. Japan imports oil from GCC and exports motor vehicles, machinery, iron/steel, electronic machines, rubber, textiles and foodstuffs etc (Calder,2015).
Thus, the central aims of the paper are to find out the factors of GCC's trade with SAARC and ASEAN by which can influence trade of Asia where the paper selected the determinants such as GCC's export and import share with SAARC, export and import concentration index of GCC in one hand and GCC's export and import shares with ASEAN on the other hand. Even, the paper tried to check the impact of intra export and intra import of GCC on Asia's trade (Asia's export and import share) so that the results can infer the progress of trade integration in Asia. How much the impact on Asia's growth and development due to GCC's trade with SAARC and ASEAN was done through the indicators of sum of exports and import of GCC with SAARC and ASEAN and sum of intra export and import share of GCC and the aggregate GDP of Asia.
On the basis of the aims, the author endeavours to examine the impact of trade integration of GCC with SAARC and ASEAN on the trade integration of Asia subject to the said determinants and secondly, it examines the impact of aggregate trade indicators of GCC with SAARC and ASEAN on the aggregate GDP of Asian region by applying the methodology of Johansen cointegration and vector error correction models during 1995-2019 taking data from UNCTAD.

Some important studies
The author has incorporated a few relevant econometric and analytical research papers in the section of review of economic literature. Wilson (2004) studied the economic cooperation among GCC, South Asia and ASEAN on financial assistance, development assistance, interbank transactions, citizen's portfolios and capital flows during . Song (2010) cited many ministerial negotiations between GCC and ASEAN in the field of economic integration process since 1990 especially in common market, trade cooperation in "food for oil", social and economic security. The author showed the prospects and problems of ASEAN-GCC free trade area, promotion of trade and financial cooperation and infrastructure development, migration and tourism. Pradhan (2010) studied the GCC-SAARC economic relations in the new strategic geo-economic interactions involving energy and Petro-dollar investment, cheap consumer goods, knowledge-driven technologies and migrant labour etc. During 2004 -2008, their trade increased more than six-fold including tourism. Now both GCC and SAARC become interested in spread to investment, labour migration, remittances, food security, etc.
Al-Tamimi (2013) explained the trade relationship between GCC and Asia which rose substantially over the past few years and Asia accounts for nearly 60 % of GCC's total foreign trade. Asia's demand for energy is largely supplied by GCC and expected 90 % of oil exports from the Middle East in the future where India and China are the dominant countries in Asia and this trade relationship might enhance GCC-Asia integration process.
The study of Koerner (2014) stated that the GCC's export to Non-Japan Asia are dominated by oil and gas as well as petroleum and plastic which account more than 80% of total export. Non-Japan Asia absorbs almost 60% of the GCC's energy export. China's oil import from GCC accounts 30% and Japan's import is found as 60%. The increased mutual investment interest between GCC and developing Asia has been intensified recently. From 2005-to 2012 Chinese FDI was 8% of all FDI but Chinese FDI into GCC is very small. GCC has close relation for FDI inflows and outflows from India, Pakistan, UK and USA etc. The relation of GCC with growing Asian market is linked with tele-communication and Islamic finance, research and development in high technology with transfer of technology and nuclear energy. Janardhan (2014) analysed the prospects on ASEAN-China and GCC-Iran Ties which emphasised on Look East Policy. The paper studied the GCC-Asia Strategic Co-operation on security around Indian Ocean Rim Association especially on peace and stability with the influence of USA. Other than SAARC and ASEAN, GCC maintained economic cooperation with India, South Korea, Japan and USA. Bhowmik (2014) cited the existence of GCC in Asian economic and trade cooperation excluding the performance in details but intended to focus on the role of SAARC+ ASEAN+EA which is politically and geographically compact, feasible and sustainable towards the process of Asian Economic Integration. Cinar et al. (2016) applied gravity model with counter factual methods to explain the trade between GCC and China citing the uses of former silk road during 1990-2013 and found that trade of GCC with China needs to recognise the possible interests of growth in China.
The gravity model of Kodithuwakku et al. (2016) between SAARC and GCC on food and agricultural export found that dependence of GCC on SAARC increased gradually where it rose from 13% to 15% from 2007 to 2012 where India was the leading country with higher trade intensity.
Zhen and Xinyi (2017) studied the dynamism of the Indian Ocean Regional integration analysis historically through the activities and establishment of SAARC, ASEAN, GCC, SADC, COMESA and IORA respectively. Their roles in trade integration in Asia, trade controls and regulations in custom union, regional convergence and coherence were also analysed.

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In an essay in UKEssays (2018), it was found that GCC and ASEAN trade agreement and the economic integration were emphasised by Trade and Investment Framework Agreement, Free Trade Area, trade and investment opportunities, trade agreements with Singapore, ASEAN-GCC Action Plan and foreign direct investment respectively. Pangestu and Armstrong (2018) explained that the plan of Asian Economic Community as well as framework of RCEP have potential effects for balancing China and Japan led Asian integration process and boosting for regional integration in Asia where the reform of RTA should be the prior agenda. Although ,US led plurilateral agreement TPP and US-EU led TTIP in Asian integration process have been presented a balancing effect in 21 st century in ASEAN+1 FTA program towards trade liberalisation in APEC. In this context, Nayyar (2018) wrote that a non-starter SAFTA, China minus East Asian Strategy, India-ASEAN FTA and non-introduction of ASEAN single currency are the major stumbling blocks in the progress of Asian Integration.
Adhikari et al. (2019) studied migration problem of South Asia with GCC analytically and stated that GCC and South Asian Region is the lowest cost corridor for remittance transfers as a result of migration of labour which vitalises the integration process. Both regular and irregular migrants from SAARC nations to GCC needs the affirmation of laws of migration and their social safety nets. It requires ministerial conference between GCC and SAARC and ASEAN with the initiative of ILO to implement policies of migration management relating to employment that may revitalise the Asian growth and integration. Burton (2020) showed relation between GCC, India, China, Japan and Korea focussing energy dimension, exchanges, co-operation, partnership, foreign direct investment, link in roads and transport, investment in real estate, health care and financial services, security in Asian states etc. The paper also discussed on trade cooperation and strategy in future and concrete future plan on uncertainty.
Asian Development Bank (2021) assessed in its Asian Economic Integration Report 2021 that the integration process succeeded a lot yet to proceed a long way although the report is silent about the GCC. The assessments are as follows:[i]Asia has relatively strong regional value chain linkages as measured by regional value chain of global value chain integrity ratio although it emphasised new free trade agreement and subregional cooperation in CAREC, BIMSTEC,GMS and SASEC etc.
[ii] Cross border investment is rising,[iii] Regional integration measured by integration index has been moving ahead,[iv] Regional co-operation must be strengthened although financial integration process is halted by covid-19 pandemic , [v] Digital technology improvement is essential.

Methodology and Source of Data
The paper assumed: IX=Intra export share of GCC (% of bloc),IM=Intra import share of GCC(% of bloc), XCI =export concentration index of GCC,ICI=Import concentration index of GCC, GAM=Import of GCC from ASEAN(in million US$),GAX=export of GCC from ASEAN(in million US$), GSM=import of GCC from SAARC(in million US$),GSX=export of GCC from SAARC(in million US$),GDPA=GDP of Asia in billion US$.,XA=export share of Asia (% of world), IA=Import share of Asia(% of the world).The data of these variables have been collected from UNCTAD (https://unctadstat.unctad.org/wds/TableViewer/ tableView.aspx?ReportId=24397 Report Id=24397).
The semi-log linear regression model is used to clarify the growth rates. The estimated equation can be written as: log(xi)=a+bt+ui where xi=variable to be estimated, a and b are constants, t=time(year), ui=random error, for all values of i=1,2,3,………n.
Cointegration and Vector Error Correction models of Johansen (1988Johansen ( ,1991 have been applied for long run association and causalities among the variables.
The approach of Johansen models (1988Johansen models ( ,1991 has been elaborated below in brief. If the mx1 vector time series Yt contains more than 2 components, each being I (1), then there may exist k(<m) linearly independent 1xm vectors α1, α2……αk such that α'yt ~ I (0) kx1 vector process where α= (α1, α2……αk) is a k x m cointegrating matrix. The Test H0:CI rank ≤k Vs H1:CI rank>k. If the LR is greater than the critical value for a certain rank, then H0 is rejected.
The unit circle and impulse response functions analysis were applied in the residual test to verify the stability and stationarity of VECM. The cointegrating equation usually expressed the long run causality of the variables.
The impulse response function can be expressed as MA (Moving Average) process which is derived from VAR(p) model as, The row i , column j element of ψl identifies the consequences of one unit increase in the jth variable's innovation at date t(ɛtj) for the value of the ith variable at time t+1 ,holding all other innovations at all dates constant. A plot of the row i,column j element of as a function of lag l is called the non-orthogonalized impulse response function.
To justify the short run causality the Wald Test (1943) has been applied for analysis.
The Wald test (1943) has been explained in brief which is relevant in this analysis.
Yt in a VAR(p) process if divided into sub-processes zt and xt i.e.,Ÿt=(ẋt, żt).Causality is defined by zero constraints on VAR coefficients and when in VAR(p) system, it is tested zero constraints for the coefficients to derive asymptotic test considering ca=c < = >Ajki =0 in a manner of : H0:ca=c against H1:ca≠c where c is an Nx(k 2 p+k) matrix of rank N and c is an (Nx1) vector. Assuming that √T( cä -a)∩N[(0, Г -1 Σu)՜ ] is an least square/maximum likelihood estimation and then we get √T( cä -ca) ∩N[0, c(Г -1 Σu)c՜] . Hence the Wald statistic is given by Then we replace Г and Iu by their unusual estimator 66 Г՜ =zz՜ /T and Σ՜u=T/(T-kp-1)xΣ՜ u, then the resulting statistic becomes It is still asymptotic χ2 distribution with N degree of freedom and it has the condition of [c((zz՜) -1 Σ՜u)c՜] -1 /T which is a consistent estimator of [c(Г -1 Σu)c՜ ] -1 Hence, we have the following result: The asymptotic distribution of the Wald statistic supposed: √T (cä -a)∩N[(0, Г -1 Σu)] holds and in practice, NF(N,T) ∩ χ2(N) as t tends to infinity where F(N,T) indicates as F random variable with N and T degrees of freedom because F(N,T) distribution has flatter tail than the χ2(N)/N distribution and it is reasonable to consider the test statistic λF=λw/N in conjunction with critical values from the Fdistribution.

Results and Observations of Econometric models
1. Impact of GCC on Asian integration. Asian export share, intra export share of GCC, export concentration index of GCC, ASEAN's export with GCC and SAARC's export with GCC during 1995-2019 have long run association as evident from Johansen unrestricted cointegration test among the first difference series of those variables with linear deterministic trend in which Trace statistic and Max Eigen statistic produced three cointegrating equations each. The values of statistic with probabilities of critical values of 5% significant level are shown below in Table 1. It implies that SAARC and ASEAN exports with GCC and intra export of GCC have greatly influenced the Asian export share in the long run which developed the economic integration in Asia. The estimated first equation of VECM revealed that the incremental Asian export share is insignificantly positively related with previous period's incremental intra export share of GCC, export concentration index of GCC, SAARC export to GCC respectively but is significantly negatively related with the incremental ASEAN's export to GCC of the earlier period. Here, three error correction terms are insignificant but they are moving towards equilibrium. The values of F and R 2 are low. In the second equation, it was found that the incremental intra export share of GCC is insignificantly negatively related with incremental export share of Asia and SAARC export to GCC of the previous period but significantly negatively related with incremental export concentration index of GCC of earlier period and even insignificantly positively related with ASEAN export of GCC of the previous period. The values of R 2 and F are high.EC1 is convergent but EC2 and EC3 are divergent where all of the three are insignificant. The estimated third equation states that the incremental export concentration index of GCC is insignificantly positively related with previous period of incremental export share of Asia, intra export share of GCC and export of SAARC to GCC but insignificantly negatively related with export share of ASEAN to GCC of the previous period. Here, R 2 is medium and F is insignificant. The three error correction terms are insignificant but convergent. The estimated fourth equation implies that the change of ASEAN's export share to GCC is significantly positively influenced by incremental export concentration index of GCC and intra export share of GCC of the previous period and insignificantly positively related with incremental export share of SAARC to GCC of earlier period. Here, R 2 is high and F is significant.EC1 is divergent but EC2 and EC3 are convergent and EC2 is significant. The estimated fifth equation states that the change of export share of SAARC to GCC is insignificantly positively related with incremental intra export share and export concentration index of GCC of previous period and insignificantly negatively related with previous period's incremental export share of Asia and export share of ASEAN to GCC respectively. The R 2 is high with significant F. The EC1 is divergent and significant, EC2 is convergent and significant and EC3 is convergent and insignificant. The estimated three cointegrating equations which were obtained from the system equations of the VECM are given below. All the three cointegrating equations are convergent but insignificantly tending towards equilibrium. The first cointegrating equation implies that the Asian export share has long run significant causalities with SAARC and ASEAN export shares to GCC respectively where the speed of adjustment is 42.7% per year. The second cointegrating equation also moves towards equilibrium insignificantly and its speed of adjustment is 63.7% per year. The equation states that the intra export share of GCC has long run causalities with SAARC and ASEAN export shares to GCC where the former is significant and the latter is insignificant. The third cointegrating equation is also approaching towards equilibrium insignificantly where the speed of adjustment was found as 2158% per year. The equation implies that the export concentration index of GCC has significant long run causalities with SAARC and ASEAN export shares to GCC respectively. The causality is negative with ASEAN but positive with SAARC in the first two equations and opposite in the third case.
The three cointegrating equations are shown in Figure 1 below.  The Wald test from the estimated system equations confirmed that there are short run causalities from export concentration index of GCC to intra export share of GCC, export share of ASEAN and SAARC with GCC respectively. There is short run causality from ASEAN export share with GCC to export share of Asia and from intra export share of GCC to export share of ASEAN with GCC. The short run causalities among those variables have been tabulated below. This VECM is nonstationary because there are two roots whose values are unity. The values of roots have been tabulated below. Moreover, the VECM is stable because all the roots lie on or inside the unit circle which is plotted in Figure 2. The impact of any shock to the respective variables measured by Cholesky one standard deviation innovations have been shown by the Impulse Response Functions whose explanations are given in the following Table 5. All these shocks have been exposed in the Figure 3.  Response of XCI to GSX  Johansen unrestricted cointegration rank test in linear deterministic trend among first difference series of import share of Asia, intra-import share of GCC, import concentration index of GCC, export share of SAARC and ASEAN with GCC during 1995 -2019 revealed that Trace and Max Eigen statistic showed three cointegrating equations among them which are significant. It implies that the variables are associated in the long run i.e., Asian import share is influenced by the intra import and inter trade of GCC with ASEAN and SAARC in the long run. The values of Trace statistic, Max Eigen statistic, Critical Value and their probabilities have been given in the Table 6.
70 The estimated first equation states that the change of the import share of Asia is insignificantly negatively affected by incremental intra import share of GCC and incremental import share of SAARC with GCC of the previous period, and significantly negatively related with import concentration index of GCC of the previous period and insignificantly positively influenced by incremental import share of ASEAN with GCC of the previous period respectively. The values of R 2 and F are high. The first two error correction terms are converging insignificantly and the third error term is significantly diverging. The estimated third equation states that the incremental intra import share of GCC is significantly negatively related with incremental import concentration index of GCC, and incremental import share of SAARC with GCC of earlier period. It is also significantly positively related with incremental import share of GCC and insignificantly positively related with import share of ASEAN with GCC of the previous period. Here both R 2 and F are high. The first Error correction and third error correction are divergent where the first is insignificant and the third is significant. The second error correction term is convergent and significant. The third estimated equation implies that the incremental import concentration index of GCC is insignificantly affected by incremental intra import share of GCC, import share of ASEAN and SAARC with GCC of previous periods respectively and insignificantly positively related with incremental import share of Asia of the previous period. Here R 2 and F are high. The first error correction term is divergent and significant, second error correction term is divergent and insignificant and the third error correction term is convergent and significant. The estimated fourth equation states that the incremental import share of ASEAN with GCC is insignificantly negatively related with incremental import share of Asia, intra import share of GCC, import concentration index of GCC and import share of SAARC with GCC of earlier periods respectively. Here R 2 and F are high. The first and second error correction terms are divergent and insignificant but the third error correction term is convergent and insignificant. The estimated fourth equation implies that the incremental import share of SAARC with GCC is negatively influenced by incremental intra import share of GCC and import concentration index of GCC of earlier periods both of which are insignificant. It is positively related with import share of Asia and import share of ASEAN with GCC of the previous period respectively. All of them are insignificant. Here R 2 and F are low. The first and second error correction terms are divergent and insignificant and third one is convergent and insignificant.  The estimated first cointegrating equation implies that the import share of Asia has long run causalities with the import shares of ASEAN and SAARC with GCC respectively where both are significant but the cointegrating equation has been approaching towards equilibrium insignificant in which the speed of adjustment is found as 12.8% per year. The second cointegrating equation states that the intra import share of GCC has long run causalities with the import shares of ASEAN and SAARC with GCC respectively where both are significant but the cointegrating equation has been converging and reached towards equilibrium significantly. The speed of adjustment is seen as 139.5% per year. The third cointegrating equation implies that the import concentration index of GCC has long run causalities with the import shares of ASEAN and SAARC with GCC respectively where both are significant and the equation has been converging significantly where the speed of adjustment is 73.44% per year. In Figure 4, the three equations have been depicted neatly. The causality with import share of ASEAN with GCC is negative and is positive with SAARC.  The Wald test of the estimated system equation of VECM revealed that the intra import share of GCC has short run causalities with import share of Asia, import concentration index of GCC and import share of ASEAN with GCC respectively. The import concentration index has short run causality with the import share of Asia. The import share of SAARC with GCC has short run causality with import share of ASEAN with GCC. These short run causalities have been arranged in the Table 8. There are two roots in the estimated VECM which are equal to unity so that the model is non-stationary. The values of all roots are given in the Table 9. All the roots lie on or inside the unit circle for which it is a stable model. The unit circle and roots are plotted in Figure 5.  The impulse response functions measured by Cholesky one standard deviation innovation from any shock to the respective variables have been described below in a tabulated form and is given below in Table 10. Reached equilibrium at ……years Then moves convergent/divergent Response of import share of Asia to intra import share of GCC Not reached equilibrium any time Divergent Response of import share of Asia to import concentration of GCC Not reached equilibrium any time Divergent Response of import share of Asia to import share of ASEAN with GCC 3,5,9 years divergent Response of import share of Asia to import share of SAARC with GCC Not reached equilibrium any time divergent Response of intra import share of GCC to import share of Asia Not reached equilibrium any time Divergent Response of intra import share of GCC to import concentration of GCC 5.5 years Divergent Response of intra import share of GCC to import share of ASEAN with GCC Not reached equilibrium any time

Divergent
Response of intra import share of GCC to import share of SAARC with GCC 3,4.5 years divergent Response of import concentration index of GCC to import share of Asia Not reached equilibrium any time divergent Response of import concentration index of GCC to intra import share of GCC 3.7 years divergent Response of import concentration index of GCC to import share of ASEAN with GCC Not reached equilibrium any time divergent Response of import concentration index of GCC to import share of SAARC with GCC

years divergent
Response of import share of ASEAN with GCC to import share of Asia 3 years divergent Response of import share of ASEAN with GCC to intra import share of GCC 4 years divergent Response of import share of ASEAN with GCC to import concentration index of GCC 2 years divergent All the responses from the shocks to the variables are plotted in the impulse response functions in Figure 6.   Source: Plotted by author.

Impact of GCC on Asian regional development
Johansen unrestricted cointegration rank test among the first difference series of Asian GDP, sum of intra export and import shares of GCC, sum of export and import shares of ASEAN with GCC, and sum of export and import shares of SAARC with GCC during 1995-2019 revealed that there is one cointegrating equation in Trace statistic only which is shown in the Table 11 which implies that the variables have long run association among themselves i.e., Asian GDP is influenced by the intra trade of GCC and inter trade of GCC with SAARC and ASEAN in the long run.  The estimated VECM is given below. The first estimated equation of VECM states that the incremental GDP of Asia is insignificantly positively related with the incremental sum of intra export and import shares of GCC and the incremental sum of export and import shares of SAARC with GCC and significantly negatively related with the incremental sum of export and import shares of ASEAN with GCC of the previous periods. Here R 2 and F are high. The error correction term is insignificant but convergent. The estimated second equation implies that the change of sum of intra export and import shares of GCC are significantly negatively related with the incremental sum of export and import shares of SAARC with GCC of the earlier period and are significantly positively influenced by the incremental sum of export and import shares of ASEAN with GCC of the previous periods and is insignificantly positively related with incremental GDP of Asia of the previous period. The values of R 2 and F are quite high. The error correction term is divergent and significant. The estimated third equation states that the incremental sum of export and import shares of ASEAN with GCC is insignificantly negatively related with the incremental sum of intra export and import shares of GCC of earlier period and is insignificantly positively related with the incremental GDP share of Asia of previous period.
Here R 2 and F are low. The error correction term is divergent and insignificant. The estimated fourth equation of VECM implies that the change of sum of export and import shares of SAARC with GCC is insignificantly negatively affected by the changes of intra export and import shares of GCC of earlier period and the incremental sum of export and import shares of ASEAN with GCC of the previous period respectively and is insignificantly positively influenced by the change of GDP of Asia of the previous period. In this case the values of R 2 and F are quite high. The cointegrating equation has been approaching towards equilibrium with the speed of adjustment of 0.1448% per year which is insignificant. It implies that the GDP of Asia has long run causalities with the sum of intra export and import shares of GCC, the sum of export and import shares of ASEAN with GCC and the sum of export and import shares of SAARC with GCC where causal relations are significant. The first and second causal relations are negative and the third one is positive.
It is clearly seen in the Figure 7. The Wald test of the estimated system equations of the estimated VECM revealed that there is a short run causality from sum of export and import shares of ASEAN shares with GCC to the GDP of Asia and there are short run causalities from the sum of export and import shares of ASEAN and SAARC shares with GCC to sum of intra export and import shares of GCC during 1995-2019.In Table 13, the causalities are noted briefly. In this VECM, there are three roots whose values are one that's why the model is non-stationary. In Table 14 the values of roots are given. The VECM model is stable because all the roots lie on or inside the unit circle which are shown in the Figure 8. The impulse response functions revealed that the response of GDPA to ASEAN© trade reached equilibrium in the seven and eight years and then moved divergent and the response of GDPA to SAARC© trade reached equilibrium at first year and 3.8 years and then tended divergent. The response of the sum of the intra export and import shares of GCC reached equilibrium after 5.5 and 6.5 years and then moved away from equilibrium. The other responses did not reach to equilibrium at any time in courses of divergence. These impacts are shown in the Figure 9. Res pons e of GDPA to GDPA - Res pons e of GAM+GAX to GSM+GSX Source: Plotted by author.
Not but the least, it is noted that the correlation matrix implied that the correlations between GDP of Asia and the sum of the intra export and import shares of GCC, the sum of the export and import shares of ASEAN and SAARC with GCC are found positive that justified that the GCC has great influence on the economic integration process of Asia. With the obvious reasons, the correlation coefficients among sum of intra exports and imports of GCC with the sum of exports and imports of GCC with SAARC and ASEAN were found negative. The correlation matrix is given below.

Some limitations and scope of future research
The paper has some limitations too. The impact of monetary and financial integration of GCC with SAARC and ASEAN in the process of Asian regional integration was excluded in the analysis due to lack of most influential time series financial and monetary indicators. This important area is left for future research which will be a significant extended analysis of the paper. Since, the possible policies that can accelerate the economic integration process of Asian region are debatable and belong to the political dimensions then the paper excludes that part. The GCC-East Asia integration is also excluded here due to non-availability of data and low integration status.

Conclusion
The influence and functions of GCC on the progress of Asian Economic Integration in association with SAARC and ASEAN are to be explored because it can also integrate East, South and West Asia as well. How East Asian monetary integration can be integrated with common currency framework of GCC in course of monetary and financial integration in Asian bloc is a phenomenon of research which can claim novelty. Yet, the paper concludes that the export share of Asia has long run association with intra export share of GCC, export concentration index of GCC, export shares of SAARC and ASEAN with GCC showing three cointegrating equations. The export share of Asia has long run causalities with export shares of SAARC and ASEAN with GCC which is significantly approaching towards equilibrium with speed of adjustment of 42% and the intra export share of GCC has long run causalities with export shares of SAARC and ASEAN with GCC which is significantly approaching towards equilibrium with the speed of adjustment of 63.7% per year. The export concentration index has short run causalities with export of ASEAN and SAARC with GCC, the intra export share of GCC and the export share of GCC has short run causality with the export share of ASEAN with GCC. The import share of Asia showed three cointegrating equations where import concentration index and the intra import share of GCC have significant long run causalities from import shares of SAARC and ASEAN with GCC which are approaching towards equilibrium significantly but the import share of Asia has insignificant long run causalities with them. The intra import share of GCC has short run causalities with the Import share of Asia, Import concentration index of GCC and the import share of ASEAN with GCC respectively. The import concentration index has short run causality with the import share of Asia. The import share of SAARC with GCC has short run causality with the import share of ASEAN with GCC. All of these findings revealed that the Gulf Cooperation Council affected the process of economic integration of Asia. The GDP of Asia has long run causalities with the sum of the intra export and import shares of GCC, the sum of the export and import shares of ASEAN with GCC and the sum of the export and import shares of SAARC with GCC where causal relations are significant. There is a short run causality from sum of the export and import shares of ASEAN shares with GCC to the GDP of Asia and there are short run causalities from the sum of the export and import shares of ASEAN and SAARC shares with GCC to the sum of the intra export and import shares of GCC respectively during 1995-2019.These observations imply that economic integration of GCC has quite influence on the development process of Asia.