Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture, a Case Study of Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan 2

Climate change raises the risk on food security, alters the cropping pattern, and secondly, it also plays the triggering role to widen inequality. The South Asian region is home to nearly half of the poor and malnourished population of the world. In South Asia — Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan encounter similar climate induced changes though they differ in their socio-political, economic, and cultural conditions. The physiological population densities (farming population per unit of agricultural land) suggest that these countries belong to the threat zone in terms of climate change impact on agriculture. It has been obvious that any unfavorable climatic conditions mean poor agricultural growth which will have serious ramification on the countries’ economies. Poverty induces poverty; because of the rudimentary technologies used in agriculture, more manpower is needed for farming thus encouraging couples to increase family manpower to invest on farming, which might lead to overpopulation. This paper evaluates how climate change has direct impact on the agricultural development and broader economic growth in the global context and South Asia (Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan). Paper unveils the climate change induced challenges in agriculture with the empirical evidence, elaborates the consequences to the farmers livelihood and food security. Based on secondary information, this paper provides climate change risk scenario and recommends few coping strategies to minimize the climate change impact in farming systems and pathway for the future research.


Introduction
To examine the relationships between food security, the food system, and climate change, there are many academic and institutional research and reports which directly or indirectly address the on the issues of climate change and agriculture (IPCC 1990;, 2014 . "Indeed, climate change is a complex challenge that poses a major threat to our planet and life, as we know it. Over time, many scientific uncertainties about climate change -its causes and global implications -have been addressed and the evidence continues to mount. Today, we know that increasing temperatures, ocean warming and acidification, severe droughts and wildfires, untimely heavy precipitation, and acid rain, melting glaciers and rising sea levels and amplification of extreme weather events are causing unprecedented damage to our food systems. Even a single environmental driver like rising temperatures can have varying degrees of effect across multiple food safety hazards, simultaneously, around the world, with subsequent impacts on public health and international trade" (FAO 2020:xiii).
The individual or group of scholars also conclude the similar results on climate change induced challenges in agriculture sector, as shown in above text boxes (Cruz et. al. 2007; Sivakumar  In addition, to these, there are hundreds and hundreds of country specific case studies, which exhibit the climate change induced problems on agriculture, which covers both developed and developing world, including South Asia (India, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Pakistan) (Bhandari 2020).

The South Asian Context
The South Asian region is home to nearly half of the poor and malnourished population of the world. In this region, food insecurity is high, with almost 23% of the population not having access to adequate calorie intake (WDI, 2014). Agriculture is the main source of livelihood as it employs 60% of the total workforce (FAO, 2013) (as cited in Pandey et al 2016: 28). However, due to climate change induced problem the agriculture pattern is altered which has raised a severe challenge to the farmers (mostly to the small formers) (Bhandari et al 1999;Bhandari 2012).
In South Asia-Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan encounter similar climate induced changes though they differ in their socio-political, economic, and cultural conditions. The majority of the people of this region still live on subsistence farming, for example, 73% population in Bangladesh lives on subsistence farming, 71% in India, 83% in Nepal, and 64% in Pakistan (World Bank, 2011). The physiological population densities (farming population per unit of agricultural land) suggest that these countries belong to the threat zone in terms of climate change impact on agriculture. It has been obvious that any unfavorable climatic conditions mean poor agricultural growth which will have serious ramification on the countries' economies. Poverty induces poverty; because of the rudimentary technologies used in agriculture, more manpower is needed for farming thus encouraging couples to increase family manpower to invest on farming, which might lead to overpopulation. Nepal's condition is the most vulnerable due to her over dependence on monsoon climate (Bhandari, 2012(Bhandari, , 2018. The high physiological population density of Nepal indicates maximum vulnerability to food security, if any unprecedented climatic variation occurs. The scenarios of the country in terms of population growth and density are changed and increased substantially, however, the arable land is decreased, percentage of cropland is decreased; and in some cases, the cereal / the crop production is also increased, however, the problems of food security have been constantly increasing. The farmers are not being able to cope with the climatic variation because of the climate change. The subsistence farmers are the main victims of global warming. There are stories of farmers suicides (India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan), because they are not being able to pay the loan to the bank, which they have to take to invest in crop production. The irregularity in rain pattern, drought, flood and unseasonal rain or drought have changed the agriculture production pattern.
The peripheral status of Nepal, India, Bangladesh and Pakistan and the over dependence of increasing population on limited subsistence practices have created various vicious cycles. In these countries, have been already facing food security problems and will experience even greater challenges due to convergence of multiple factors. For example, in the Nepal case, on the demand side, population will increase from estimated 28.8 million today to nearly 36.2 million by 2025 (Population Reference Bureau, 2010). Already, agricultural production and food security have been hampered due to increasing land degradation, lack of location-specific technology, and inadequate infrastructure for agricultural development Shrestha and Bhattarai, 2003). In addition to poor technological responses to agriculture, the ongoing political instability has not only threatened the subsistence farming economies  but also it has forced many agricultural workers to migrate abroad hoping for remittances . Food market has been very instable due to the decrease in farm production Thapa, 2010). Intertwined effects of these factors have posed significant challenges to farm communities . In some areas farm produces such as apples, peaches, and vegetables are decayed on the fields due to unprecedented bands (shutdown) of transportation (Adhikari, 2008). Many patients have died unexpectedly due to the shutdown of transportation services. Poor government responses to increasing insecurity have created difficult lives (BBC, Nepali Service). Coupled to these problems, climate changes and associated variability have threatened agricultural production. To improve our understanding of the great uncertainty of agricultural production coupled with the large potential impacts of increased population mobility, it has been essential to increase our understanding of the relationship between climate variability and change and human behaviors such as migration (Axinn and Ghimire, 2007;Brown, 2008;Carr, 2009;(Bhandari et al., 1999;Bhandari, 2012). Though much research has focused on forced migration due to political uncertainties, little is known regarding the indirect impacts of climate on human migration leaving aside the farming practices. To address the deficiency, there is need to investigate the impact of climatic vulnerability on the food security of people. "Vulnerability to climate change refers to the propensity of human and ecological systems to suffer harm and their ability to respond to stresses imposed because of climate change effects. The vulnerability of a society is influenced by its development path, physical exposures, the distribution of resources, prior stresses and social and government institutions… Adaptation to climate change takes place through adjustments to reduce vulnerability or enhance resilience in response to observed or expected changes in climate and associated extreme weather events" (Adger et al., 2007:720). Nepali people have managed to adapt in different circumstances, for example, even though the winter drought of 2008/2009 had almost decimated the winter crops throughout the country (MoAC/WFP/FAO, 2009), people of Nepal have survived by diversifying their farming activities, such as planting fruit trees or focusing more on animal husbandry (Bhattarai, 2010). In the same year, despite a strong harvest of summer crops, net harvest resulted in a negative production balance of 132,914 MT of cereal (-2.5%) for all of Nepal (CBS, 2009). With ever increasing population, even a slight decrease in annual food production becomes a matter of great concern for food security. Because of these vulnerabilities, people might not have enough food even to purchase as Amartya Sen puts food security toward the demand side ( In a subsistence farming, a shortage of food leads to environmental degradation that threatens food security. Increasing food insecurity leads to the deterioration of ecological services, which in turn creates further food shortages (Bhattarai, 2010). According to the FAO (2009), in 2008-09, there was a total of 132,916 metric tons food grain deficit in Nepal that impacted 16% of 28 million populations across the country. Mountains and hill regions face such vulnerabilities more frequently than the Tarai region (Ghale, 2010). Districts located in the western regions are the most vulnerable. Disaster, mostly natural ones, are the major causes of instability in food production in which substantial land area, crops, livestock, and human losses incur every year (Bhandari 2011). Drought and landslide have impacted on the production of paddy, maize and millet. In 2008/09, the total cropped area affected by natural disasters was 93,700 hectares in which paddy area was 92,000 hectares (Pyakuryal and Upreti, 2010).

Food security and climate change
Food security has been understood in different forms, and very often, it has been defined narrowly to mean food self-sufficiency, but it is much more than this. The FAO defines food security as a state "when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for active and healthy life." This definition encompasses several dimensions of food security. First, it implies both physical and economic access to sufficient food. Second, it means that such access should encompass all people irrespective of their economic and social backgrounds. Third, it always implies such access in a year, and in times of unusual events such as that prompted by social unrest and climatic factors. Fourth, it implies that food has to be safe, nutritious and conducive to a healthy life. Of the several dimensions of food security, in the case of Nepal, net productivity of grains has the most direct effect on food security. Understanding the potential impact of climate change on food security in Nepal is critical for two reasons. First, the existing system of food production in the country is highly climate sensitive because of its low level of capital and technology. Second, agriculture is the main source of livelihood for the 88% of the total population in Nepal, where 80% of over 15 years population is engaged in agriculture (NG/ADB, 1995). Nearly 2/3 rd of the rural household income is derived from agricultural activities, and 8 out of 10 people working in the agriculture sector are self-employed farmers. This is the only source of cash income for 90% poor people (Ghale, 2010). The consequences of an adverse climate change could therefore significantly affect food security of the country and the well-being of the Nepalese people (Chhetri, 2008). Any decrease in food production will further reduce the food intake in this one of the poorest calories in-take countries of the world. Like the global trends, evidence of climate change, such as general warming, receding snowline, prolonged drought, and unpredictable rainfall patterns, have been well documented across the country (MoE, 2010). BBC Nepali news often presents discussions on the issues of changing farming practices and phonological patterns in the hills of Nepal where temperature is increasing from 0.06 to 0.12 0 C/year in recent decades, with significant warming in the higher elevations of the Hills and Mountain. In the high-altitude region of Nepal, there are also reports of the loss of arable land due to drying of irrigation canals fed by melting snow but no longer replenishment with receding snowline. A recent assessment of the change in average temperature and precipitation in Nepal using over a dozen general circulation models (GCMs) projected a significant change in rainfall and consistent increase in temperatures for 2030, 2050, and 2100 (Agrawala, et al., 2003). Characterized by low levels of capital and technology, Nepal's existing system of food production is highly climate sensitive and is considerably more vulnerable to climate change (Chhetri, 2008).

Why South Asia is vulnerable to climate change
"South Asia is home to over one fifth of the world's population and is known to be the most disaster-prone region in the world. The high rates of population growth, and natural resource degradation, with continuing high rates of poverty and food insecurity make South Asia one of the most vulnerable regions to the impacts of climate change"... "South Asia is one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to climate change in view of the huge population, the large number of poor facing food insecurity, inappropriate soil and management practices on marginal lands in the semi-arid regions leading to increasing rates of land degradation and the projected impacts of climate change on the agricultural, forestry and fisheries sectors" (Sivakumar and Stefanski 2011:13 and 27). The geographic condition-mountain, terrain -the Hindukush Himalaya, the Bay of Bengal, the rivers systemsthe population and the impact on natural ecosystem primarily in the process of survive and unplanned development scenarios help South Asia towards the venerability to changing climatic pattern. "Mountain people in the Hindu-Kush Himalayan region encompassing parts of Pakistan, India, Nepal, and China, are particularly vulnerable to food insecurity related to climate change because of poor infrastructure, limited access to global markets, physical isolation, low productivity, and hazard exposure, including Glacial Lake Outburst Floods  With its impact on agricultural production and natural resources, climate change will bring greater fluctuation in crop production, food supplies, and market prices and will aggravate the situation of food insecurity and poverty in South Asian countries, which adversely affects the livelihoods of millions of people in the region (Schmidhuber  and Tubiello

Climate Risk on Agriculture System
As noted by FAO, 'at no other point in history has agriculture been faced with such an array of familiar and unfamiliar risks, interacting in a hyperconnected world and a precipitously changing landscape. The growing frequency and intensity of disasters, along with the systemic nature of risk, are jeopardizing our entire food system …. Disasters threaten all three pillars of sustainable development: social, environmental, economic. This is happening more rapidly and unpredictably than anticipated, across multiple sectors, dimensions, and scales. Agriculture continues to bear the brunt of disaster impacts as new risks and correlations emerge (FAO, 2021). According to Climate Risk Index, South Asia has been in high risk due to climate change. Climate Risk Index prepared by Germanwatch (2020); show Pakistan is in fifth, Bangladesh seventh and Nepal nineth most risky countries for climate change. "In India, Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh, water shortages have been attributed to rapid urban growth, industrialization, population growth and inefficient water use, which are exacerbated by a changing climate and its negative impacts on water demand, supply, and quality" (Sivakumar and Stefanski 2011:19) (table 6).  In terms of most affected country with the evidence of 2018, India is fifth victim country in the world context (table 4).  (6) started the year 2018 with severe monsoon rains from 20th to 26th May affecting 20 districts, especially the south and west coast.34The provinces of Galle and Kalutara were the most affected. In Galle, 166mm of rain fell in 24 hoursusually the district has an average precipitation of 290mm in the full month of May. At least 24 At least 24 people died, more than 170 000 people were affected and nearly 6 000 people were displaced (Germanwatch, 2020:7).

Women are the major victims of climate change impact
In the farming practices in the world context as well as South Asian context, the women are the main sufferer of climate change. First, climate change raises the risk on food security, alters the cropping pattern, and secondly, it also plays the triggering role to widen inequality. As stated in the 52nd session of the Commission on the Status of Women (2008), Women are more vulnerable to the effects of climate change than men-primarily as they constitute the majority of the world's poor and are more dependent for their livelihood on natural resources that are threatened by climate change. Furthermore, they face social, economic, and political barriers that limit their coping capacity. Women and men in rural areas in developing countries are especially vulnerable when they are highly dependent on local natural resources for their livelihood. Those charged with the responsibility to secure water, food and fuel for cooking and heating face the greatest challenges. Secondly, when coupled with unequal access to resources and to decision-making processes, limited mobility places women in rural areas in a position where they are disproportionately affected by climate change.
It is thus important to identify gender-sensitive strategies to respond to the environmental and humanitarian crises caused by climate change. It is important to remember, however, that women are not only vulnerable to climate change, but they are also effective actors or agents of change in relation to both mitigation and adaptation. Women often have a strong body of knowledge and expertise that can be used in climate change mitigation, disaster reduction and adaptation strategies. Furthermore, women's responsibilities in households and communities, as stewards of natural and household resources, positions them well to contribute to livelihood strategies adapted to changing environmental realities (United Nations 2008) (table 5). Detrimental effects of climate change can be felt in the short-term through natural hazards, such as landslides, floods, and hurricanes; and in the long-term, through more gradual degradation of the environment. The adverse effects of these events are already felt in many areas, including in relation to, inter alia, agriculture and food security; biodiversity and ecosystems; water resources; human health; human settlements and migration patterns; and energy, transport, and industry. (whereas main victims are always women and children).

Food Security
Women face loss of income as well as harvests-often their sole sources of food and income. Related increases in food prices make food more inaccessible to poor people, to women and girls whose health has been found to decline more than male health in times of food shortages.

Impact of Biodiversity Loss
In many parts of the world, deforestation has meant that wood -the most widely used solid fuel -is located further away from the places where people live. In poor communities in most developing countries, women and girls are responsible for collecting traditional fuels, a physically draining task that can take from 2 to 20 or more hours per week. As a result, women have less time to fulfil their domestic responsibilities, earn money, engage in politics or other public activities, learn to read or acquire other skills, or simply rest. Girls are sometimes kept home from school to help gather fuel, perpetuating the cycle of disempowerment.

Water Resources
Climate change has significant impacts on fresh water sources, affecting the availability of water used for domestic and productive tasks. The consequences of the increased frequency in floods and droughts are far reaching, particularly for vulnerable groups, including women who are responsible for water management at the household live…......Given the changing climate, inadequate access to water and poor water quality does not only affect women, their responsibilities as primary givers, and the health of their families', it also impacts agricultural production and the care of livestock; and increases the overall amount of labor that is expended to collect, store, protect and distribute water. Health climate change scenarios include increased morbidity and mortality due to heat waves, floods, storms, fires, and droughts..........floods-increasing consistently with climate change-may also increase the prevalence of water-related diseases, especially water and vector-borne diseases, which affect millions of poor people each year. In addition, an increase in prevalence of diseases will likely aggravate women's caregiving of family and community members who are ill.

Human Settlements and Migration Patterns
Climate change adds a new complexity to the areas of human mobility and settlement by exacerbating environmental degradation.........the migratory consequences of environmental factors result in higher death rates for women in least developed countries, as a direct link to their socioeconomic status, to behavioral restrictions and poor access to information. Women's Human Rights Climate change affects the economic and social rights of countless individuals; this includes their rights to food, health, and shelter. As climate change will inevitably continue to affect humanity, a key UN priority is safeguarding the human rights of people whose lives are most adversely affected. Women, Gender Equality and Energy Linkages between energy supplies, gender roles and climate change are strongest in countries with low availability of basic electricity and modern fuels, as well as high dependence on biomass fuels for cooking, heating and lightingand close to two billion people in the developing world use traditional biomass fuels as their primary source of energy. In these countries, cultural traditions make women responsible for gathering fuel and providing food, even when this involves long hours performing heavy physical labor or travelling longer distances. With the onslaught of aggravated environmental changes, women are likely to continue spending long (perhaps even longer) hours fetching firewood, drawing water, working the land, and grinding cereal crops. Technology is never gender-neutral and when coupled with the negative effects of the changing climate, it is even less gender-sensitive. In many developing countries, the access of girls and women to information and communication technology is constrained by social and cultural bias, inadequate technological infrastructure in rural areas, women's lower educations levels (especially in the fields of science and technology) and the fear of or lack of interest in technology, and women's lack of disposable income to purchase technology services Vulnerability of Women to Disasters The vulnerability of women to disasters is increased for several reasons. Post-disaster, women are usually at higher risk of being placed in unsafe, overcrowded shelters, due to lack of assets, such as savings, property, or land. In the context of cyclones, floods, and other disasters that require mobility, cultural constraints on women's movements may hinder their timely escape, access to shelter or access to health care.
Source: open-UN-https://www.un.org/womenwatch (2020). These texts are adopted from https://www.un.org/womenwatch (April 5, 2021) the additional information of gender and climate change can be found in the United Nations websites. Table 5, Climate Change-role to rise inequality (Women) is self-explanatory, which gives a clear picture of how women are specially victimized due to climate change and how the climate change is playing crucial role to widen the inequality among men and women. In the farming systems, women have multiple roles and responsibilities maintaining the household to involved in each activities of farming; however, their contributions are not acknowledged equal to male partners.
Climate change has impact in every ecosystems of the world and agriculture ecosystem is more sensitive to the climatic change. As a result, the crop production pattern particularly vulnerable or risk countries of South Asia are already in the crisis. The above listed scenarios clearly indicate that, the world is witnessing the climate change impact in agriculture system globally, however, main victim of climate change are the small farmers of developing countries and women in particular. The impact depends on the risk factors (as seen in table 3 and 4). Climate Change also playing the triggering role to widen economic, and social inequality between men and women.   composting, organic residue recycling, biochar (biochar, or "black carbon," is a soil amendment created by pyrolysis (intense heating with low oxygen supply) of organic residues), and other organic amendments; reducing agricultural GHGS through reduced inputs, energy conservation, and increased energy efficiency; water management NSAC 2019-Recommendation to the policy makers establish a monitoring, evaluation, and reporting system financial support for the subsistence farmer fund public plant and animal breeding for a climate-resilient agriculture focus climate change research, conservation incentive programs support climate-friendly nutrient management system increase support for composting as a climate friendly alternative support climate-friendly livestock production systems Kim 2019-Recommendation to the policy makers establishment of a resource-cycling agricultural system integration of agricultural policy and low-carbon eco-friendly policy activation of climate smart agriculture development and dissemination of low-carbon green technology development of policy programs based on carbon information utilization of green finance in the agricultural sector education and communication for green growth FAO 2008 Improved crop and grazing land management to increase soil carbon storage; restoration of cultivated peaty soils and degraded lands; improved rice cultivation techniques and livestock and manure management to reduce CH4 emissions; improved nitrogen fertilizer application techniques to reduce N2O emissions; dedicated energy crops to replace fossil fuel use; improved energy efficiency; mulch farming, conservation tillage, cover cropping and recycling of bio-solids. Financial incentives and regulations for improving land management, maintaining soil carbon content, and making efficient use of fertilizers and irrigation World Bank 2021 Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is an integrated approach to managing landscapes-cropland, livestock, forests, and fisheries--that address the interlinked challenges of food security and climate change. World Bank 2021-Policy recommendations climate risk cannot be reduced to zero, which means governments must take decisive action to help households and businesses manage them. build resilient foundations with rapid and inclusive development help people and firms do their part revise land use plans and protect critical infrastructure help people and firms recover faster and better manage impacts at the macro level prioritize according to needs, implement across sectors and monitor progress There is no doubt that each of the mitigation and adaptation as well as policy recommendations are valid, however, it is necessary to consider geographical condition (mountain, plain) of the country and what is the level of the farmer, the agriculture infrastructure (irrigated, rainfed, manual or mechanical, commercial, subsistence), the social system, community system, political system and even cultural practices related to agriculture systems. The formers of South Asian countries-Nepal, India, Bangladesh, Pakistan hold strong ties with farming system which includes livestock. Therefore, it is necessary to understand what coping strategies farmers are applying (probably the same as listed above), and what is working and what is not working. It is necessary to understand the traditional coping practices, the indigenous knowledge of both adaptation and mitigation mechanisms developed by the local farmers. "People perception and understanding of climate change can be an important asset to adaptation to climate change while it is rarely taken into consideration" (Negi et. al. 2017:415). Therefore, it is necessary to understand the varieties climate change impacts in every farming ecosystems and provide support to the needy farmers based on their necessity and demand.

Conclusion
It is known fact that agriculture ecosystem system has been facing direct impact of climate change, as a consequences, there is a challenges of food security, the food production, distribution, and consumption system. There are noticeable changes in South Asian agricultures practices. The region is one of the most vulnerable to climate change due to its geographical structure. The climate change pattern in South Asia, shows remarkable changes, and risk in weather pattern and it has direct impact on agriculture system. The Climate Risk Index indicate the increasing high risk of unprecedented climate change shocks. The people in poverty and women are the major victims of climate change impact. To cope with climate change impact on agriculture various adaptation and mitigation mechanisms are needed.
There is no doubt that agriculture filed has been facing the climate change induced problem directly and have adverse impact. The developing world whose major economy is based on agriculture; have witnessing severe climatic variation since last decades or so. There is an assumption that farmers' livelihood depends on incomes based on the size of farmlands, number of cattle, economically active population in the family, highest level of education a family member has, involvement of a family members in various types of jobs including remittance practices, distances of settlements to nearby markets, existing forest resources in the vicinities of households, types of house, and dependency ratios (Bhandari 2018a(Bhandari , 2018b. However, there are no such research, which validates such assumption. There are knowledge gaps in the interrelationships of climatic factors and vulnerability to increase understanding of how the various geospatial technologies help to link between science and conscience facing the development planners, resource managers and environmental scientists working to resolve local, regional, and national ecosystem services that are representatives of other South Asian countries mainly hit by climatic variability. Researchers need to explore more on these issues in their future research.

Recommendation
The main recommendations to cope with the climate change impacts for farmers and the policy makers are listed above in table 6. "What farmers should do to cope with changing weather pattern".
The climate events will affect agricultural farming at various level. These changes impact on the ecosystem services that support growing human population. To mitigate these problems, there is research need: 1. To explore the knowhow of the food production patterns and propose alternatives to increase the productivity of healthy food even at the time of climatic variations. 2. Develop a model and replicate it, if applicable, to other areas. 3. To explore how subsistence farmers are responding to climate change and other socioeconomic factors to maintain their livelihoods in a sustainable manner. 4. To investigate whether the issues of equity especially the wellbeing of disadvantage groups are addressed by policy instruments. 5. To explore how the people are contributing to the sustainable management of natural resources and biodiversity at the time of climate variation.
There is a need of institutional architecture to deal with the climate change and its impact on agriculture. Farmers friendly programs and policies are needed. Based on research finding (farmers experiences), coping, adaptation, mitigation measures should be implemented to minimize climate change induced challenges in the agriculture systems.